Dave Dempsey

Ensemble Forecasting: Information Matrix (NCEP)

by Dave Dempsey - Thursday, July 20, 2006, 2:52 PM
 
COMET Module: "Ensemble Prediction System Matrix: Characterics of Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)" (updated as needed)

"This matrix describes the operational configuration of NCEP EPS, including the method of perturbing the forecasts (initial condition or model), the configuration(s) of the model(s) used in the EPS, and other operationall significant matters."

Appropriate level: Advanced undergraduate and above.

Summary comments: This module is not an instructional module but is rather a matrix of hypertext links to information about aspects of NCEP's medium range and short range ensemble forecasting systems, including perturbation methods, characteristics of the models used, and postprocessing and verification. Some of the informational Web pages are illustrated with simple, clear diagrams, and some links lead to the "Ensemble Forecasting Explained" module (see entry in this glossary under "Ensemble Forecasting"). For students already familiar with the basics of how numerical weather prediction systems work and how numerical models are formulated, the matrix provides a useful way to investigate these topics in more detail, at least for NCEP's ensemble forecasting system. Some explanations are illustratrated with clear and easy to read, albeit static, graphics. Instructors might find some of these explanatory Web pages useful for instructional purposes, such as assigned reading.

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