CPC Climate Prediction Tools Activity Instructions

Scenario:

You are called by noted New York Times science writer Andrew Revkin, who asks you if he can do a brief interview with you about climate forecasting on time scales from weeks to seasons. He says he wants to focus specifically on the techniques, meaning, and verification of the Climate Prediction Center’s extended-range and long-range forecasts. He says he wants to focus on CPC’s seasonal forecast for winter 2009-10 and the extended range forecasts that were issued late in December 2009. He has provided your team with 6 questions in advance of the interview.

Part 1: Prepare for Interview - In virtual breakout teams (60 min):

You will work with the other offices in your virtual breakout team to prepare answers for the interview with Mr. Revkin. See your breakout group page for specific directions for joining your group:

See Breakout Groups directions:
http://courses.comet.ucar.edu/mod/resource/view.php?id=4529


  1. Your group will discuss each of the 6 questions together. Each office in your group will take responsibility to present the answer to one question.
  2. You should have taken time before now to study the two forecast discussions. (Dec. 28th 2009 extended range forecast and the November 19 2009 seasonal forecast discussion.) At this time take 10 minutes to review them.
  3. Decide as a team how you would answer all 6 of Revkin’s questions. Try to come to a consensus answer for each question – however one office will be prepared to present each answer.
  4. Allow about 8 minutes discussion per question.
  5. Each answer should take no longer than 2-3 minutes to present.


Part 2: Forecast Interview - In main session (45 min):

  1. Reconvene in main webinar after lunch
  2. The facilitator will go through each of the 6 questions, asking a team to answer.
  3. The office in that team who has prepared that answer will present it.
  4. The entire audience will rate the answer via a poll question.
  5. The facilitator will provide an evaluation of the answer and his recommended answer.
  6. Continue through the remaining 5 questions.
Last modified: Tuesday, September 18, 2012, 8:38 AM