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MSC Fire Weather Forecaster Course 1
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MSC FireWx Course 1
Topic 36
COMET: Ensemble Forecasting Explained
COMET: Ensemble Forecasting Explained
COMET: Ensemble Forecasting Explained
Click
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu1/ensemble
link to open resource.
◄ Quiz: Introduction to Ensemble Prediction
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Welcome
Traveller's Choice Motor Inn
Directions to Hotel, Airport and Environment Canada
UBCO - Map
Course Schedule
FWFC 1 - Pictures
News Forum
Course Content Forum
Instructor List
Student List
Chat Room
Conference Call Information
MetEd (COMET Modules)
Valuable Meteorology Web Sites
Phil Chadwick - Links
Resource Files
Blank Tephigram
Blank Hodograph
Maps of Western Canada
Upper Air Stations Map
Tephigram - Useful Features
Surface Energy Balance
Data Overview
Data Presentation
Station vs. MSL Pressure
Limitations of Rain Gauges
Tephigrams and Hodographs
Exercise 1.0: Data Exercises - General
Exercises1.0: Data
Feedback: Data Day 2
Exercise 1.3: Tephi-Upper Air-Tephi
Exercise 1.3: Tephi-Upper Air-Tephi Package
Feedback: Data Day 3
Analysis Overview
Upper Air Chart Discussion
Exercise 2: Upper Air Charts - Real Time Search and Discussion
Feedback: Analysis
Exercise 1.1: Surface Features - Map Discussion
Exercise 1.1: Map
COMET: Introduction to the Satellite Palette
COMET: The Ten Commandments of the Satellite Palette
Exercise: Vorticity Centres/Lines Search
NWS: Jet Stream Max Online School for Weather - Doppler Radar Beams
Exercise: 850 hPa Analysis - Low Level Jets
Introduction to Meteorology I
Feedback: Intro to Meteorology, Fronts and Systems I
Introduction to Meteorology II
Upper Air Meteorology
Exercise: LAKP
Exercise: Isopleths
Feedback: Presentation Skills 1
Homework: COMET - Dynamic Feature Identification: Vorticity Maxima and Comma Patterns
Homework: COMET - Dynamic Feature Identification: Vorticity Minima and Anticomma Patterns
Exercise: 500 vorticity charts
Introduction to Remote Sensing Week
Forecast Funnel
Conceptual Models
Frames of Reference
Satellite Systems
LAB: Satellite Dynamic Features
Diagnosis: Introduction
Diagnosis: Synoptic Scale Processes
Diagnosis: Fog
Exercise: Fog
Diagnosis: Low Cloud
Diagnosis: Mid - Upper Cloud
Exercise: Clouds
Feedback: Diagnosis Week 2 - Day 2
Satellite Interpretation
Polar Orbiting Satellites
LAB: Chadwick - WWC - 2009
Example: Satellite Features Analysis and Diagnosis
Radar - Conventional
Radar - Doppler
Exercises: Radar
Exercises: Radar Case Studies
Feedback: Presentation Skills
Diagnosis: Wind
Introduction to Tephigrams and Hodographs
Operational Tephigram Analysis
Operational Hodograph Analysis
Exercises: Tephigram and Hodograph Cases Studies
Exercises: Tephigram and Hodograph
Satellite Feature Analysis and Diagnosis - Sat Signatures
Thermodynamic Diagrams
Feedback: Remote Sensing
Lightning - Good Basics
CMOS Introduction
CMOS Link
Short Range Forecasting: Outcomes
Diagnosis: Precipitation Elements
COMET: Topics in Precipitation Type Forecasting
Gradient vs Geostrophic Wind
Quiz: Diagnosis and Remote Sensing
Quiz: Diagnosis and Remote Sensing - Key
Short Range Forecasting: Clouds and Precipitation
Short Range Forecasting: MOIP Synoptic Cloud and Precipitation
Short Range Forecasting: MOIP Amount and Type
Short Range Forecasting: MOIP Preparing Prognostic Charts
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Extrapolation Techniques.
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Summary
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Extrapolation Exercise
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Extrapolation Exercise Answers
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Exercise Question Sheet
Short Range Forecasting: Kinematics: Exercise Answer Sheet.
Short Range Forecasting: Temperature
Exercise: Fire Weather Climatology
Exercise: Fire Weather Climatology - Example
Short Range Forecasting: Winds
Feedback: Pend Oreille Exercise
Feedback: Bev Archibald
Briefing
Pre-Class: COMET: Definition of the Mesoscale
Quiz: Definition of the Mesoscale
COMET: Thermally-Forced Circulation I: Sea Breezes
Quiz: Thermally-Forced Circulation I: Sea Breezes
Fire Weather Forecasting - A Day on the Desk
Exercise: Early Season - Map and Sounding
Preparatory Homework: COMET: Flow Interaction with Topography
Quiz: Flow Interaction with Topography file
COMET: Thermally-Forced Circulation II: Mountain/Valley Breezes
Quiz: Thermally-Forced Circulation II: Mountain/Valley Breezes
Terrain Induced Circulations - Gabor
COMET: Skew-T Mastery
COMET: Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs
MOIP: Hodograph Analysis
Exercise: Hodograph Analysis
Exercise: Hodograph Analysis - Questions
Exercise: Hodograph Analysis - Answers
COMET: Mesoscale Banded Precipitation
Exercise: 17 May 2002 House River
Good Resource: Slantwise Convection, An Operational Approach
COMET: PBL in Complex Terrain - Part 1
Quiz: PBL in Complex Terrain - Part 1
Short Range Forecasting: Humidity
Exercise: Humidity and RH
Exercise: Discussion of Regional PBL Issues
Exercise: Tephi Practice 1 - Tucson Sounding
Exercise: Tephi Practice 1 - Tucson Sounding
Answer: Tephi Practice 1 - Tucson Sounding
COMET: PBL in Complex Terrain - Part 2
Quiz: PBL in Complex Terrain - Part 2
Exercise: Short Range Forecast for the Cariboo
Form: Zone Forecast
Exercise: Pre 1990 Fire Cases Discussion
PBL: Surface Energy Budget 1
PBL: Surface Energy Budget 2
LAB: PBL Lab 1 Instructions
LAB: PBL Lab 1
LAB: PBL Lab 2
Exercise: House River Fire Case Part 1
Answers: House River Fire Case Part 1
PBL: PBL Evolution
LAB: PBL Lab 3
Pre-Class: COMET: How Mesoscale Models Work
Pre-Class: COMET: Impact of Model Structure & Dynamics
NWP - Operational and Practical Pointers
Introduction to NWP
NWP - Presentation Handout
Exercise: Forecast Table
Feedback: NWP Week 7 - Day 1
COMET: Impact of Model Structure & Dynamics
Quiz: Impact of Model Structure & Dynamics
COMET: Understanding Data Assimilation
GEM Regional Technote
Operational and Practical Pointers Day 2
4 Panel Maps
12Z 4Panel Maps
Operational Model Biases
Operational Model Features
Operational Pointers Day 3
Updated Schedule
Operational Pointers Day 4
CMC Sever Weather Charts
COMET: Interpretation of Global Model "Flip Flop"
Operational Model Matrix
COMET Quiz: Understanding DA
COMET Quiz: Ten Common Misconceptions
COMET: How models produce precip and clouds
COMET: Ten Common NWP Misconceptions
COMET Quiz: How models produce precip and clouds
COMET Quiz: Ten Common Misconceptions
GFS T170 Grid-Scale Precipitation Bomb during Flood Event in IA
Operational Pointers All Days (Complete)
Final Schedule for NWP Week
Datamart Bulletin Search Help Document
EC Product Guide Online
COMET Case Study: GFS Precip Bomb
Pre-Class COMET: Multispectral Satellite Applications
Quiz: Multispectral Satellite Applications
Intro to Smoke Forecasting
Smoke Management
House River Case - Monday - Day 1
COMET: Mesoscale Meteorology Effects on Fire Behavior
Quiz: Mesoscale Meteorology Effects on Fire Behavior
Venting Explained
House River Case - Tuesday- Day 2:
House River Case - Wednesday - Day 3
COMET: Stability, Smoke Management and Fire Weather Forecasting
COMET: Stability, Smoke Management and Fire Weather Forecasting file
Part 1: Smoke Forecasting - Health and BlueSky Rains
Part 2: Smoke Forecasting - Satellite Data
Feedback: Blue Sky Rains
COMET: Fire Behavior
House River Case - Thursday - Day 4
House River Case - Wednesday - Day 3 Spot Answer
GoTo Link
COMET: Fire Weather Climatology
Satellite Smoke Fire Detection
Feedback: Smoke Week
Introduction to Ensemble Systems
Exercise: EPS Game
EPS Road Salting Game B
EPS Road Salting Game A
EPS Road Salting Game C
Recording: EPS Day 1 Last Half
EPS Week Schedule
EPS Wind Energy Game: Instructions
EPS Wind Energy Game
Ensemble Systems I
Recording: EPS Day 2 Hour 1
COMET: Introduction to Ensemble Prediction
Quiz: Introduction to Ensemble Prediction
Quiz: Ensemble Forecasting Explained
NCEP: Ensemble Training Link
ECMWF: Predictability: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
Ensemble Systems II
Recording: EPS Day 3 Hour 1
Recording: EPS Day 3 Hour 2
Recording: EPS Day 3 Hour 3
Quiz: EPS Take Home Quiz
Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) Homework
WMO Guide on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
Exercise: Probabilistic Forecast
Ensemble Systems: Summary
GoToWebinar Video Codec
Recording: EPS Day 5 Hour 1: Exercise Discussion
Recording: EPS Day 5 Hour 2: Wrap Up and Summary
EPS Recordings - Download of All Recordings
Quiz: EPS Final Quiz
Feedback Please: EPS Week
COMET: Principles of Convection I: Buoyancy and CAPE
Quiz: Principles of Convection I: Buoyancy and CAPE file
QC Fire 211 Case - Monday - Day 1
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 1
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 1 Tephi
QC Fire 211 Case - Tuesday - Day 2
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 2 Tephi
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 2
COMET: Principles of Convection III: Shear and Convective Storms
QC Fire 211 Case - Wednesday - Day 3
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 3 Tephi
FWFC Spot Forecast QC - Answer - Day 3
FWFC Zone Forecast QC - Answer - Day 3
Climate Change: a Collision of Science, Politics, Economics and Ethics
GoToMeeting
QC Fire 211 Case - Thursday - Day 4
QC Fire 211 Case - Fire Final Report
Kamloops Spot Forecast: Cool Pictures of Results
Southern Okanagan Case - Day 1: Instructions
Southern Okanagan Case - Part 1
GoToMeeting: Bacic Hail Forecasting by Steve Knott
Convection: Basic Hail Forecasting
Quebec 2002 Case
Quebec 2002 Case - Answers
Southern Okanagan Case - Part 2
sat
Map Southeast US:
Ontario 17 July 2007 Case
Ontario 17 July 2007 Case: Answers
Simulator Schedule
Daily Steps in Forecasting
Reference Only: Miller Technique/Chicken Entrails for Severe Weather
Feedback: Convection Week
FWFC Spot Forecast - Convective Simulator
Miller Technique for Fire Weather Forecasters
Feedback: Simulator Week 1
Schedule - Simulator
Miller Technique: Quick Reference Chart
FWFC - Evaluation Grid
FWFC Zone Forecast - Ottawa & 200 km Vicinity
FWFC Zone Forecast - Okanagan
Shift Change/Met Colleague Briefing Tips
Formal Fire Weather Briefing Tips
Useful Convective Parameters - BC/YT
FWFC Zone Forecast - General
Convection: Single Cell Storm 3D
Maps
Rob's Form/Spot and Zone together
Case Study: Simulator - Part 2
Feedback: Simulators
Course Photos:
Quiz: Ensemble Forecasting Explained ►